Auto space has witnessed a strong outperformance this year as well as in the last 1 year on the back of significant volume expansion and enhanced operational efficiency.
During Q3FY24 as well automotive companies witnessed favorable year-on-year volume growth across various segments. This growth in volume was complemented by improved realization, supported by premiumization strategies and enhanced net pricing. Moreover, the margin performance was bolstered by a favorable product mix and advantages stemming from the easing of commodity prices.
Amid this positive environment, let’s analyse between Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), which auto stock has better long-term investment opportunities.
Stock Price Trend
Tata Motors has outperformed benchmark Nifty Auto this year so far as well as is the better performer between the two. Tata Motors has risen 2 percent in 2024 YTD while M&M is up just 7.5 percent. In comparison, the Nifty Auto index has gained 11.5 percent in this period.
This year so far, Tata Motors has given positive returns in all 3 months so far while M&M has been positive for just 1. Tata Motors rose 1.4 percent in March so far, extending gains for the fifth straight month since November 2023. Between November and March, it has surged over 53 percent. Meanwhile, it jumped 7.4 percent in February and 13.4 percent in January 2024.
M&M, on the other hand, has shed 3 percent in March so far after a 16.6 percent rally in February. It was also over 4 percent down in January 2024.
Meanwhile, in the last 1 year as well, Tata Motors is the better stock. It has given multibagger returns, soaring 129 percent whereas M&M has risen almost 60 percent. In comparison, Nifty Auto has surged over 70 percent in this time.
Both Tata Motors and M&M have also hit their record highs in the current month, March. Tata Motors hit its new peak of ₹1,065.60 on March 5, 2024. Currently trading at ₹964.85, it is over 9 percent away from its peak. However, it has advanced 141 percent from its 52-week low of ₹400.40, hit on March 28, 2023.
Meanwhile, M&M also touched its all-time high of ₹1982.30 on March 1, 2024, and is currently around 6 percent away from peak. Currently trading at ₹1867.60, it has gained over 66 percent from its 52-week low of ₹1,124, hit on March 28, 2023.
Moreover, in the long term, 3 years, again Tata Motors has emerged as the winner. Both stocks have given multibagger with Tata Motors up 212 percent and M&M up 120 percent.
Earnings
In the quarter ended December 2023, Tata Motors, India’s most valuable carmaker, beat Street estimates as it reported a more than two-fold increase in net profit driven by strong sales in its British luxury car unit, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). Tata Motors’ consolidated net profit surged 137.5 percent to rs 7,025.11 crore in Q3FY24, compared to ₹2,958 crore in the year-ago period. Its total revenue from operations in the third quarter of FY24 rose 25 percent to ₹1,10,577 crore from ₹88,488.59 crore, YoY, led by JLR sales which rose 27 percent in the period.
Earlier this month, the auto major also announced a demerger of its commercial and passenger vehicle segments into two distinct listed entities. This move aims to enhance the company’s ability to capitalize on growth opportunities effectively.
Which auto major has better long-term investment opportunities?
Akshay Karwa, Research Analyst, Anand Rathi Institutional Equities likes M&M over Tata Motors
M&M’s strategic initiatives, such as expanding its EV lineup and leveraging partnerships (VW), position it well for growth and market leadership in the PV space, particularly in the burgeoning electric vehicle segment.
1) M&M’s Healthy Order Book: M&M has a healthy order book of 226,000 units, with a booking rate of approximately 50,000 units per month. This indicates strong demand for their products.
2) Market Share Gain in PV Space: With such a robust order book and high booking rate, M&M is poised to gain market share in the Passenger Vehicle (PV) space. Their growth projections indicate a significant outperformance compared to the industry average, with volumes expected to grow in the high mid-teens against an industry growth rate pegged at around 5 percent.
3) New EV SUVs Launch: M&M plans to launch five new Electric Vehicle (EV) SUVs by December 2024. These SUVs will be based on their new electric platform, INGLO. Leveraging components from VW indicates a strategy, which would provide M&M with access to advanced technology and expertise in the EV segment.
Motilal Oswal, as well, is more bullish on M&M
While the brokerage has downgraded Tata Motors post the demerger news, it has an ‘add’ call on M&M. For Tata Motors, MOSL has a target price of ₹1,000, implying a just 3.6 percent upside, whereas for M&M, it’a target is ₹2,005, indicating an over 7 percent upside potential.
“Tata Motors (TTMT) has announced the demerger of its business verticals into two separate listed companies. While the demerger seems to be a step in the right direction, we do not foresee any need to revisit our target price, which is already based on SoTP valuation. Moreover, despite factoring in most of the positive triggers in our estimates, we get limited upside given the recent sharp run-up in the stock,” said MOSL.
For M&M, MOSL noted that M&M’s auto business is expected to be the key growth driver for the next couple of years on the back of its healthy order backlog and new launches.
“The near-term outlook for tractors remains weak, but we expect tractor demand to revive to mid-single digit growth amid favourable indicators. We estimate a CAGR of nearly 12 percent, 15 percent and 16 percent in revenue, EBITDA, and PAT, respectively, over FY23-26,” it stated.
Nuvama Wealth Management also prefers M&M better
The brokerage has maintained a ‘buy’ call on M&M and raised the target price to ₹2,080, implying an over 11 percent upside potential.
It foresees a consistent revenue and core earnings Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13 percent and 18 percent respectively throughout FY23–26E, with an anticipated sustained Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) exceeding 35 percent. Notable catalysts for the stock are expected to include production ramp-up initiatives and additional announcements related to Electric Vehicles (EVs), it added.
Meanwhile, it downgraded Tata Motors to ‘Hold,’ with a target price of ₹960, citing limited upside potential and a moderating volume outlook.
