Will the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) retain power in Delhi? Or will the BJP or Congress take over the reins at this time? Delhi’s fate will be sealed when the voting happens on February 5. The Delhi Election results will be announced on February 8 this year. As polls are around the corner, a few pre-poll surveys have predicted election results. Here’s what they have revealed:
C-Voter survey
If reports are to be believed, the C-Voter survey revealed that the AAP would make a clean sweep in the Delhi election, with over 51 per cent of votes, while 41 per cent of those surveyed talked about a change in the government.
“About half of the nearly 3,200 people C-Voter surveyed said they did not want to change the government,” Reuters reported.
Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of the polling agency C-Voter, said the AAP had an edge, especially among women voters. In an interview with News Tak, he said that 80 out of 100 women who voted for the AAP in 2020 assembly polls may still choose the party this time.
Moreover, 65 out 100 women who voted for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha Election are still voting for the BJP and “around 25 are swinging their vote to the AAP”, Deshmukh said.
Deshmukh added that a majority (75 of 100) of women who voted for the Congress in the last Delhi Assembly Elections are likely to vote for the AAP this time.
“The AAP has a good track record on delivering freebies in Delhi,” Deshmukh was quoted by Reuters as saying.
NACDAOR survey
A survey conducted by National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organisations (NACDAOR) showed that Dalits in Delhi are more inclined to vote for the AAP in the Delhi elections. The exercise included 6,256 people across Delhi. As many as 2,574 women were part if it.
The survey revealed that Dalit voters gave an upper hand to the AAP in 35 seats, followed by the BJP in 28, and the Congress in 7 seats. It claimed that 44 per cent of Dalits who were polled were voting for the AAP in the February 5 polls, while 32 per cent said they would vote for the BJP and 21 per cent said they would vote for the Congress.
As per the report, Dalits have mostly favoured the INDIA bloc over the BJP-led NDA. The AAP and the Congress are part of the INDIA bloc at the national level but are contesting state elections separately.
Satta Bazar predictions
The Phalodi Satta Bazar had earlier predicted the AAP in the lead, crossing the majority mark of 36 in the 70-member Assembly, Moneycontrol reported. However, the market recently revised its estimates just two weeks ahead of polls.
The revised seat projection reportedly showed the AAP winning 39 to 41 seats, suggesting a slight uptick in favour of Delhi’s ruling party. Meanwhile, the BJP was projected to win 29 to 31 seats — five to six seats short of the majority mark of 36. The Phalodi Satta Bazar has made no projections for the Congress.
Past Delhi Election results
Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP had swept the last two elections, winning 67 seats and 62 seats in 2015 and 2020 polls, respectively. It is now hoping for a third successive term in power.
